Impact Evaluation: The Role.....
Yemen
27 Jan, 2026
ATYAF Studies & Consulting
ATYAF Studies & Consulting
Impact Evaluation: The Role of PEFA Diagnostics in Strengthening National PFM Cycles
Author
ATYAF Studies & Consulting
Date
27 Jan, 2026
Report description
Impact Evaluation: The Role of PEFA Diagnostics in Strengthening National PFM Cycles
Abstract: This article examines the causal link between the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) framework and systemic improvements in Public Financial Management (PFM). By analyzing the transition from diagnostic scoring to service delivery, particularly in fragile contexts like Yemen, we evaluate how evidence-based reporting catalyzes institutional reform.
I. The PEFA Architecture: A Global Diagnostic Standard
The PEFA program represents a multi-donor partnership designed to provide a comprehensive, evidence-based assessment of PFM performance. Operating through 31 indicators across 7 pillars, the framework offers a granular view of the budget cycle.
Standardization allows for comparative benchmarking, enabling governments to measure their performance against international best practices in fiscal discipline, strategic resource allocation, and efficient service delivery.
II. Methodology: Assessing Causal Contribution
International evaluation standards require moving beyond correlation. This evaluation utilizes a Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD) to isolate PEFA’s impact. The focus is on the Theory of Change (ToC), tracing how a technical document influences political and social outcomes.
The Transmission Mechanism: How do diagnostic scores translate into "Reform Dialogue"? The evaluation tracks how data moves from the technical audit phase into the legislative and executive decision-making chambers.
Sequencing: Addressing the "Technical vs. Political" bottleneck. PEFA identifies what is failing, but the sequencing of reforms (e.g., strengthening internal controls before decentralizing funds) remains a critical knowledge gap this evaluation seeks to fill.
III. The Fragility Lens: Institutional Resilience in Yemen
Applying the PEFA framework in Conflict-Affected and Fragile States (FCS), such as Yemen, shifts the objective from "performance optimization" to "institutional preservation."
Baseline Preservation: In Yemen, historical PEFA data (2007/2008) serves as a vital blueprint for the eventual restoration of unified fiscal functions.
Risk Mitigation: In the absence of a full national assessment, Sub-national PEFAs provide a localized diagnostic tool to ensure that humanitarian and developmental aid utilized through local systems meets basic transparency requirements.
Trust as Currency: For fragile states, a PEFA report is not just a technical document; it is a signal of "fiduciary credibility" to the international community, unlocking potential for increased Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) support.
IV. Strategic Implications for Service Delivery
The ultimate metric of PFM reform is the impact on the citizen. High-performing cases show a direct correlation between improved scores in Pillar 5 (Predictability and Control in Budget Execution) and a reduction in "leakage," directly increasing the resources available for primary healthcare and education.
Comparison Matrix: Yemen vs. Well-Performing Cases
Feature High-Performing Case (e.g., Rwanda) Fragile Context (e.g., Yemen)
Primary Goal Optimization & Innovation Preservation & Basic Accountability
Data Usage Multi-year reform sequencing Fiduciary risk mapping for aid
Primary Audience Domestic Policy Makers International Donor Community
Service Link Performance-based budgeting Humanitarian fund tracking
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